All NASA Contracts — January 21, 2026

Contracts average 10+ year durations to 2030-2039 with $580M+ in unexercised options, providing multi-year visibility; 5/6 signals bullish excluding nonprofit Caltech.

Two awards total $1.69B (83% of period value) for Mars and nuclear R&D, but nonprofit status limits direct equity upside despite $3.9B+ potential ceiling.

Firefly's $39M obligated CLPS task scales to $177M with options, exemplifying commercial lunar program's growth potential amid low $8.8M outlay.

Low outlays vs obligations (e.g., $16M/$132M for Assurance, $9M/$71M for Dominion) signal potential funding delays across 5 contracts.

Extended periods to 2039 expose all contracts to NASA budget shifts or program cuts over 3-33 years.

Delivery orders (4/6) tied to parent contracts risk non-exercise of $580M+ options if competitors emerge.

$580M+ unexercised options across contracts, led by Firefly ($138M) and Caltech ($3.9B ceiling), for space R&D scaling.

CLPS and satellite R&D signal commercial-small biz shift, with Firefly's win positioning for lunar follow-ons.

Utility exposure via Dominion's $71M firm-fixed NASA power deal offers stable yield play through 2028.

Caltech captures 83% value via non-competed JPL delivery orders for Mars/nuclear tech.

Programs span to 2039 with cost-plus structures favoring incumbents like Assurance/ARES.

Firefly CLPS award underscores small biz role in nonscheduled space transport.

{"entity"=>"Firefly Aerospace Inc", "reason"=>"$177M CLPS ceiling with $138M options amid small biz status signals breakout potential.", "trigger"=>"Option exercises or 2025 start outlays >$10M"}

{"entity"=>"California Institute of Technology (JPL programs)", "reason"=>"83% value concentration; tracks NASA Mars/nuclear priorities indirectly.", "trigger"=>"Base + options exceedance beyond $4.8B combined"}

{"entity"=>"Assurance Technology Corp", "reason"=>"33-year horizon to 2039 with $17M options despite low outlays.", "trigger"=>"Outlays surpass 50% of $132M obligation"}